Research conducted by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) has revealed that climate change is likely to increase the incidence of dengue in the future. According to the study conducted in Pune, cities like Mumbai, Pune, and others may become more vulnerable to the disease. However, to address the issue, an AI-based warning system has been developed, which can send out notifications two months ahead of time.
The research highlights that moderate rainfall (up to 150 mm in a week) can significantly increase dengue mortality rates. On the other hand, heavy rainfall (more than 150 mm) reduces mortality rates as it washes away mosquito eggs and larvae. The monsoon season, from June to September, sees varying rainfall patterns, which directly affect the number of dengue cases and fatalities. While light or moderate rain triggers an increase in cases, heavy rainfall tends to lower them. This indicates that it is not the total amount of rainfall but its pattern that plays a critical role in dengue transmission, especially in Pune.
The study further points out that during the monsoon, temperatures exceeding 27°C, intermittent rainfall, and humidity levels between 60% and 78% create conditions that promote dengue. If preventive measures are not taken, dengue-related deaths could rise by 13% by 2030 and by 23% to 40% by 2050.
Although the study focuses on Pune’s climate and health data, its findings, highlighting the impact of temperature, humidity, and rainfall on dengue activity, are applicable across the country.
“In densely populated cities like Mumbai, the risk is significantly higher. Considering the rising risks, it is imperative to develop an efficient warning system to mitigate the impact of dengue outbreaks,” said Dr. Roxy Mathew Koll, a researcher at IITM.
