In Maharashtra, including Mumbai, the retreat of monsoon is expected to begin only around mid-October. This means intermittent rainfall may continue in Mumbai and across the state until Diwali.
Mumbai: Weather experts have indicated a shift in climatic patterns across the country. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to remain in the negative phase, which generally has a positive impact on weather conditions. As a result, the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon, which usually begins from Rajasthan in mid-September, is likely to be delayed this year. In Maharashtra, including Mumbai, the retreat of monsoon is expected to begin only around mid-October. This means intermittent rainfall may continue in Mumbai and across the state until Diwali.
The transition period between monsoon and winter often brings significant weather changes. When the IOD is negative at the beginning of the season, rainfall usually decreases. However, if the negative IOD is active toward the end of the season, monsoon conditions typically extend until mid-October. This year, due to the negative IOD, notable changes in weather are expected not just in northern India but also in adjoining regions.
Normally, monsoon withdrawal begins from Rajasthan around September 17. This year, the retreat is predicted to start only after September 22 from northwest India, and its progress may slow down. Consequently, Mumbai and other parts of Maharashtra are likely to witness scattered showers in the coming weeks. Rainfall is expected to remain subdued during Pitru Paksha, while light showers are forecast again during the concluding days of the Navratri festival.
— Ashray Shetty, Weather Researcher
 is expected to remain in the negative phase, which generally has a positive impact on weather conditions. As a result, the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon, which usually begins from Rajasthan in mid-September, is likely to be delayed this year. In Maharashtra, including Mumbai, the retreat of monsoon is expected to begin only around mid-October. This means intermittent rainfall may continue in Mumbai and across the state until Diwali.){kind=link}