Mumbai: In a promising update for farmers and citizens alike, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast above-normal rainfall across most parts of Maharashtra for the upcoming southwest monsoon season (June–September 2025). According to the IMD’s latest long-range forecast, Marathwada and South Maharashtra are particularly expected to see higher-than-average rainfall, offering hope for a strong agricultural season in the region.
Nationally, the IMD has projected an above-average monsoon for India overall, estimating rainfall at 105% ±5% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The forecast is based on a combination of advanced dynamical models and statistical analysis, marking a shift from IMD’s earlier two-stage forecast method.
The IMD’s updated forecasting strategy now includes monthly and regional breakdowns, offering more granular insights for different parts of the country. As per the spatial probability models, while central and western India—including much of Maharashtra—is set to benefit from ample rainfall, regions like Northwest India, Northeast India, and the southern peninsula may experience below-normal showers.
The department also noted that current El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are neutral, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in a neutral phase as well—both key indicators that support a favorable monsoon outcome. Additionally, lower-than-average snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and Eurasia during early 2025 is expected to positively influence monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.
An updated and more detailed forecast, including regional rainfall distribution and June-specific predictions, will be released by IMD in the last week of May 2025.
